Bernie Sanders: Has He Lost Already? | [site:name]

Sanders at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va. (Alex Wong/Getty)

Is this the beginning of the end for Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaign?

Two months ago, those expecting Democratic voters to crown Hillary Clinton watched in awe as the Vermont senator and self-described socialist blew past her in New Hampshire polls and briefly pulled even with her in Iowa.

Now a sudden Clinton surge is threatening to put Sanders’s underdog campaign on life support. He’s facing a massive polling deficit in Iowa, a bellwether state that sets the tone for later primaries. A Tuesday poll shows Clinton edging him out for the first time in months in New Hampshire, another key early-voting state next door to his native Vermont. And her lead continues to widen nationally, with the latest poll giving her a two-to-one advantage.

For now, Democratic strategists and election analysts won’t quite declare Sanders’s campaign dead on arrival. But there are fewer than 90 days before the first votes are cast, and his challenges will increase exponentially once the race moves beyond Iowa and New Hampshire. He has to convince Democratic voters in those two states that he’s an electable alternative if he hopes to have any chance at the nomination. And though the polling spread will probably narrow before February 1, his chances of pulling off a comeback are decreasing by the day.

“He’s got to basically throw a perfect game between now and Iowa to win it,” says Democratic strategist Doug Thornell.

Despite Clinton’s looming presence as an establishment favorite, the momentum this summer was all on Sanders’s side. He clawed his way to parity in New Hampshire in late August, and then shot up to a comfortable ten-point lead in Granite State polling averages that lasted until mid-October. In Iowa, he emerged from relative obscurity to draw even with Clinton for a few days in mid-September, before falling back slightly to nip at her heels for the next month and a half.

But Clinton has reasserted her dominance in the early-voting states over the past two weeks. An October 27 Monmouth University poll gave Clinton a 41-point advantage in Iowa, and a Loras College poll released later that day put her ahead by 38 points. On Monday, a survey by Public Policy Polling showed her at 57 percent support among Iowa Democrats to Sanders’s 25. And another Monmouth poll released Tuesday gave Clinton a three-point lead over Sanders in New Hampshire — a small but significant margin in a state where the Vermont senator has led since late August.

The sudden Sanders slip isn’t due to mistakes made by his campaign — it’s a result of the Clinton ship righting itself after months of listing precariously.

The sudden Sanders slip isn’t due to mistakes made by his campaign — it’s a result of the Clinton ship righting itself after months of listing precariously. “I think we’re seeing a big bump for Hillary Clinton among Democrats, courtesy of Republicans and the Benghazi hearing,” says Democratic strategist Bob Shrum, who adds that Vice President Joe Biden’s decision not to run and Clinton’s strong debate performance last month have also contributed to her revived fortunes.

“The confluence of events in October fundamentally changed the dynamics of the race on the Democratic side,” says Thornell. “So much of the focus was on Hillary Clinton and what she was doing wrong, and that created space for Sanders.”

As that space has closed, the poll gap between Clinton and Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire has widened. While Clinton can probably afford to lose those states — falling back on states such as South Carolina, where she has strong support with a sizable constituency of African-American Democrats — Sanders doesn’t have that luxury.

If Clinton wins either Iowa or New Hampshire, “It’s hard to see where else Sanders goes after that,” says Thornell. “Because then you’re venturing into territory that’s more favorable to Clinton.”

#share#Most strategists remain bullish about Sanders’s New Hampshire prospects, saying its proximity to his native Vermont lends him a natural geographic advantage. But an Iowa win looks far less likely, and there’s concern that a Sanders loss in Iowa could jeopardize his chances in the Granite State.

While the Clinton campaign has spent millions on ads in Iowa over the past few months, Sanders just started running his first Iowa campaign ad this week. His campaign is hoping it will halt his plummeting poll numbers in the state, but some strategists don’t think it’ll be enough.

“I think voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are already paying attention at a level that’s different from the rest of the country,” says Nathan Gonzales, a nonpartisan political analyst. “I’m not sure there are Democratic voters in Iowa who are waiting to be introduced to Sanders in a television ad.”

Iowa voters are also notorious for making up their minds at the last minute. John Kerry trailed Howard Dean for months before ultimately winning the caucus in 2004. In 2007, Clinton led Obama by a large margin in Iowa until the end of November.

But Clinton’s lead is more commanding this time around, and Sanders’s standing with Iowa Democrats is more tenuous than Obama’s was in 2008. His greatest challenge will be winning over voters who like him but can’t imagine him appealing to a general electorate. “There are Democrats who sit around saying, ‘I don’t know if he can win,’” says Shrum. “And Democrats really want to win.”

It also means that Sanders, who is famously averse to negative campaigning, will need to come out from behind the policy lectern and hit Clinton hard. She’s already targeted him on gun control, first accusing him of being soft on gun manufacturers and then calling his response to her criticism sexist. If he hopes to win, he’ll need to respond in kind.

#related#“It’s not enough for Sanders to just run a positive campaign and get over the top,” says Gonzales. “You have to contrast [yourself] with the other side when the other side is winning in most polls.”

Even if Sanders plays all his cards right, strategists think he’s unlikely to take both Iowa and New Hampshire — much less South Carolina and Nevada. Clinton’s campaign has just emerged from its summer doldrums looking too strong to collapse.

“The bigger question is, do I anticipate or envision Clinton’s operation falling apart, and I just don’t,” says Thornell. “They were dealing with headwinds that were very problematic. And they’re through them now.”

— Brendan Bordelon is a political reporter for National Review.