Wisconsin, once again, is the center of the political world.
On Thursday night at Marquette University Law School, Governor Scott Walker faces Democrat Tom Barrett in the final debate ahead of Tuesday’s turbulent recall election.
This is only the second clash between Walker and Barrett, and it is, by far, the most important debate of Walker’s political career.
Walker’s power is at risk, as are the budget reforms he shepherded last year. If he loses, it will be a bruising defeat for Republicans, who have poured millions into his coffers.
Last Friday, Walker soberly stuck to policy during his first debate with Barrett, the Democrats’ 2010 gubernatorial nominee. Barrett, in contrast, was feisty and combative.
Badger State politicos expect Walker to repeat his low-key performance under the bright lights at Marquette. His campaign has adopted a similar subdued approach. But as much as Walker wants to avoid the recall spotlight, simply resting his case on his economic record, he will have to grapple with a slew of issues in the final stretch.
“Walker has tried to stay cool and above the fray,” says Charlie Sykes, a conservative talk-radio host in Milwaukee. “But as Barrett sinks in the polls, his only option is to aggressively take on Walker, to see if he takes the bait.”
Keep an eye on these four factors during the pair’s final showdown, which WISN-TV will webcast beginning at 10 p.m. Eastern (9 p.m. Central).
MILWAUKEE MêLÉE
Throughout the race, Walker has bucked the conventional wisdom about the recall — that it’s a referendum on him — by highlighting Barrett’s mayoral record in Brew City.
Walker’s strategy was boosted last week when the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported that hundreds of cases of aggravated assault in the city have been misclassified — a tabulation error that has enabled Barrett to talk up the city’s crime decline. Walker has since blasted Barrett in campaign videos for touting faulty statistics.
But Walker’s push to discredit Barrett’s Milwaukee record hasn’t been an entirely smooth maneuver. Walker himself has become ensnarled in a different Journal Sentinel exposé. The paper recently reported that the governor, while serving as Milwaukee’s county executive, may have been connected to illegal campaign activity. Walker has denied the allegation; Barrett has dubbed it a “potential bombshell.”
These two stories will likely feature in the debate as Barrett tries to taint Walker with something other than his budget fix. Look for Walker to shrug off the “distraction,” as he called it last week, and remind viewers that he personally called for the investigation into the matter.
BARRETT’S LABOR HEADACHE
Since Walker and GOP legislators passed the governor’s budget-reform bill last year, the state capitol in Madison has been besieged by progressive activists. These lefty agitators have held countless Greek-style protests in the leafy capitol square, singing Woody Guthrie songs and railing against Walker. It’s been a brutal, nonstop effort, with Walker depicted as Hitler on homemade posters.
For Barrett, the union forces are a mixed blessing. He needs their ground support, especially in liberal Dane County, where Democratic turnout is critical. But their colorful antics over the past 16 months, including this recall campaign, have turned off many independent voters, who aren’t exactly thrilled that their white-granite capitol has become a favorite backdrop for MSNBC’s The Ed Show.
In the last debate, Barrett, who beat Big Labor’s preferred candidate in the recall’s Democratic primary, distanced himself from his lefty base. “I’ve said ‘no’ to my friends,” Barrett told the audience. “I have no desire to be the rock star of the Far Left of this nation.” If Barrett reuses this argument at Marquette, it’ll be a sign that he’s continuing to tack to the center — not rallying public workers — in the race’s final days, hoping to win over moderates who have soured on the Occupy ethos.
WALKER’S DISCIPLINE
As Barrett attempts to hammer Walker for starting a “civil war” within Wisconsin, Walker will need to keep his focus on various aspects of economic success in the state since he took office. Wisconsin’s employment outlook has improved since last year, and the state government has been able to create millions in new budgetary savings.
Barrett is trying to make the election about Walker’s celebrity among conservatives across the country, tying the governor to the tea-party movement and “far right” interests. He has largely avoided promising to peel apart Walker’s fiscal reforms, which remain more popular than Democrats like to admit. This has been a boon to Walker, but in the final debate, look for Barrett to hit harder.
In the first debate, Walker was mostly disciplined as Barrett sniped, saying again and again that the recall was initially “about our reforms” but that Democrats have pointedly changed topics since “the reforms are working.”
But if Barrett comes armed with talking points about the budget, Walker will have to keep steady and engage him. Walker’s best bet, GOP operatives say, is to bring up how his reforms are helping public schools to make financial decisions free of the public-sector unions’ heavy hand. This argument makes the issue easy to understand.
THE NATIONAL SHADOW
For the most part, national Democrats have been absent from the Wisconsin recall election. Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz visited Wisconsin on Wednesday to tell state liberals that the Democratic National Committee, which she chairs, is fully committed to the recall — something that would have seemed to go without saying a few months ago.
Wasserman Schultz mentioned that former president Bill Clinton may even visit the state in the coming days. She also cited the Obama campaign’s involvement in the race as reason to believe that Barrett can topple the governor.
In response, Reince Priebus, the Republican National Committee chairman, held a conference call later in the morning to slam his counterpart’s Racine stop as a “token visit” by a worried Democratic official.
Expect Barrett or Walker at the debate to mention this national-party duel, as each candidate looks to tar the other as a proxy for non-Wisconsin interests. Walker allies say the involvement of the DNC and Team Obama is a good omen, since it allows them to portray Barrett — who calls himself an independent voice — as a minion of the DNC. For Governor Walker, who has been criticized for taking millions in outside funding, “nationalizing” Barrett is an offense that is the best defense.
— Robert Costa is a political reporter for National Review.