If you’ve been listening to John Kerry at all recently you’ve heard his take on America in the year 2004.
According to his telling it’s certainly not “morning again in America.” No, to quote virtually every federally elected Democrat in the 1980s, it’s midnight.
We all remember the Democrats’ gloom-and-doom rhetoric in the early 1980s, the early 1990s, and the dawn of the 21st century. The problem for the Democrats here is that within this time we’ve seen America create enormous wealth and all kinds of labor-saving, life-improving technologies. How long can one group bet against the American worker and the American economic engine and lose? Guys, it’s getting old.
Unfortunately, the Democrats have to do this. This tactic is dictated by three (3) interlocking impulses that are unlikely to change:
1. The party out of power has to make people think things are intolerable in order to replace the incumbent.
2. Fear is a jobs program for Democrat politicians. After all, if America wasn’t such a pit of economic misery, exploitation, and broken dreams, then what would we need a big, expensive government, Ivy League bureaucrats, and social-engineering schemes for?
3. Victim psychology has captured the Democratic party. Tales of stagnation and woe are a convenient and reassuring myth to the kind of voters who would rather blame others and demand money from their neighbors than take responsibility and take the initiative. For the Democrats this is a base message.
And all of this leads us to jobs. More specifically, it leads us into a discussion of a lack of jobs. It leads us into a discussion of unemployment rates.
Just how bad is the unemployment picture in America in 2004?
By historical standards, not bad at all.
The official unemployment rate as calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was 5.6 percent in January 2004. This is down .7 percent from a high of 6.3 percent in June 2003.
In the 1980s and early 1990s, 5.6 percent would have been considered approaching full employment, as many economists of that time felt that this was the frictional rate and that unemployment below that rate was strongly inflationary.
Of course, the nation enjoyed extremely low unemployment rates in the late ’90s, dropping to an extremely low 3.8 percent in April of 2000 and staying in the 4-percent range from the summer of 1997 to the summer of 2000.
But, historically, 5.6-percent unemployment is not the national cataclysm Kerry and the Democrats are trying to sell.
In fact, Bill Clinton entered the year 1996 with the exact same unemployment rate George W. Bush entered 2004 with–5.6 percent. Moreover, Clinton was reelected in November 1996 with a 5.4-percent unemployment rate, an unemployment rate that we might expect in November 2004.
This brief review of the data calls into question the extreme Democrat rhetoric on the jobs front and the media’s thoughtless parroting of DNC talking points. But, there’s more.
We’ve now heard the much repeated DNC talking point that says the same poor economic performance experienced under Bush I will sink Bush II. That is again a stretch. The unemployment rate in January 2002 was 7.3 percent–a full 1.7-percent higher than it currently is. The unemployment rate in 1992 crested in June at 7.8 percent and was 7.4 percent in November. In other words, the unemployment comparison of Bush I and Bush II is hogwash.
Finally, there are some interesting details about the unemployment rate that suggest the current 5.6-percent rate is not nearly as bad as some people think.
We’ve all heard the long discourses on discouraged workers and why the unemployment rate as currently calculated may underestimate the true unemployment rate. But we don’t hear much about the elements of the calculation that appear to inflate the unemployment rate.
A quick review of the Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment numbers shows that the unemployment rate for young Americans (16 to 19 years old) is boosting the overall number by roughly .5 percent. For example, the unemployment rate of 16- to 19-year-olds looking for work is 16.7 percent. But, for all American workers 20 years and older the unemployment rate is 5.1 percent. And, the unemployment rate for all workers 25 and over is only 4.5 percent.
Even more interesting are the unemployment figures based on education. The unemployment rate for college graduates over 24 is only 2.9 percent. The unemployment rate for workers over 24 with some college education is only 4.5 percent. The unemployment rate for workers over 24 with only a high-school education is 4.9 percent.
These numbers don’t suggest the re-launch of the New Deal, but if you listen to Kerry and company you would think the breadlines are back.
Yes, it is true that the unemployment rate in some states is relatively high. Oregon and Michigan, for example are dealing with unemployment rates of 7.6 percent. And these rates will make it difficult for the Bush campaign to win these states in November.
It is also true that the jobs issue appears to be more related to prospective fears of job loss than to concerns of imminent unemployment. In other words, it’s not so much the economy as it is anxiety over the future. And this anxiety is being fueled by the Democratic message and the media.
In the end, it is undeniable that the Democratic rhetoric in this area is not well connected with the reality of the situation. In the 21st century, the only thing the party of FDR has left is fear itself.
–Robert Moran is a vice president at Republican polling firm Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates. He is an NRO contributor.