Madison, Wisconsin is about 1,000 miles from Columbia, South Carolina–my hometown and the scene of John Edwards’s only primary victory–but last night was the closest thing to “home cooking” the North Carolina senator is going to get.
Wisconsin provided Senator Edwards a unique confluence of favorable conditions that will not be available elsewhere: rural voters, farm-state populism, retail politics, and a single-state primary day. And I hate to pour water on Chris Matthews’s quasi-religious ecstasy over the prospect of a “real race,” but even with all these advantages, John Edwards still lost by 50,000 votes and six percent (Kerry 40 percent, Edwards 34 percent).
Even in primary politics, second place is first loser.
While the pundits are focusing on Edwards’s strengths so far from home and his ability to lose narrowly up North (though these same pundits considered Kerry’s wins in Virginia and Tennessee “no big deal”), what I saw on display last night were Edwards’s weakness.
There is a long tradition in American Democratic politics of farm-state socialism, and Wisconsin is ground zero for that movement. Milwaukee has had several socialist mayors, and Wisconsin is the home of the La Follette family that produced several successful, Populist candidates.
Enter John Edwards, who, despite the southern drawl, is serving up a platform straight from the old Russian politburo. His “Two Americas” speech could easily have been given by William Jennings Bryan, including Edwards’s repeated assertions that America has a “moral duty” to expand government social programs.
Bryan was very popular in the Midwest and among rural voters. According to exit polls, John Edwards did very well among rural Wisconsin voters last night. And the reports from the campaign indicate that Edwards’s retail politicking among these rural voters is extremely effective. When these children and grandchildren of farm-state socialists hear Edwards preaching class warfare, they’re hearing the ol’-time religion.
Interestingly, Edwards did surprisingly well among suburban independents and crossover Republicans in Wisconsin last night, too. Part of this might be attributable to local politics as well: Robert La Follette was a Progressive Republican, and there are some vestiges of liberal Republicanism in the Badger State.
But I suspect there’s also an element of inadvertent deception at work. John Kerry of Massachusetts is obviously a liberal. John Edwards, a southerner running against the northeastern liberal, must not be a liberal, right? Actually, wrong. If anything, John Edwards is to the left of Kerry on economic issues. John Kerry, for example, is trying to pretend he’s against free trade to get through the primaries, while Edwards really seems to mean it. But it’s an easy mistake for suburban, crossover, and late-deciding voters to make. And, interestingly, those are voters who were surprisingly strong for Edwards last night.
And while the mainstream media are sweeping the Kerry “bimbo eruption” story towards the nearest rug as swiftly as they can, I wonder if the near-miss had some impact on Kerry’s strongest selling point, his electability. Wisconsin Democrats may have collectively cast a vote to slow down the nomination process and let Matt Drudge have another shot at their guy before the party makes its final choice.
But with a major, multiple-state contest coming up on Super Tuesday and Edwards low on both cash and organization, it’s hard to see any scenario other than a Kerry collapse that brings Edwards the nomination. He can count on his strongest allies, however: a press corps desperate to keep the primary story alive.