March 07, 2006, 8:14 a.m.
Henry vs. Ciro
The first important election of 2006.

President Bush’s poll numbers are weak — but are they so lousy that his embrace of a congressman at the State of the Union address will sway Democratic voters in a Texas primary election today?

The contest features incumbent Henry Cuellar against former congressman Ciro Rodriguez. It is the first important election of 2006 — and it may shed light on how races around the country will go later this year.

This isn’t the first time Cuellar and Rodriguez have squared off in the Lone Star State’s 28th congressional district, which stretches from San Antonio to Laredo. Two years ago, their positions were reversed: Rodriguez was the incumbent and Cuellar was the challenger. The election ultimately came down to just 58 votes out of more than 49,000 cast, with Cuellar pulling off the upset. Ever since, Rodriguez has been running almost nonstop to earn back his old seat.

Whereas Rodriguez had aligned himself with the most liberal elements of the Democratic Party, Cuellar has proven to be far more moderate. His voting record keeps him within the mainstream of his party, but he has supported bankruptcy reform, the Central American Free Trade Agreement, and repeal of the death tax — positions that have led to his forming partnerships with House Republicans on the other side of the aisle.

In that very aisle, however, Cuellar encountered the president on January 31 — Bush demonstrated his affection for the congressman by grabbing Cuellar’s cheeks. Rodriguez has tried to exploit this image, stirring antipathy for Cuellar among Bush-hating bloggers and using it to raise campaign cash. By the middle of February, Rodriguez actually had more money in the bank, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission: $256,858 to $208,062. “He’s extreme right and he’s been voting that way,” complains Rodriguez of his opponent. A slogan on his website reads: “A Real Democrat to represent the 28th District!” His list of endorsements includes John Kerry and 21 House Democrats.

How the race will finish is anybody’s guess — and it’s entirely possible that it will be so close once again that nobody will know the result for a few days. A poll taken a little more than a week ago showed Cuellar at 39 percent, Rodriguez at 34 percent, and 19 percent undecided. (A third candidate, teacher and former Senate candidate Victor Morales, registered 8 percent.)

Cuellar does seem like a good fit for the majority-Hispanic district, whose voters backed Bush over Kerry in 2004 by a 6-point margin. There’s a strong military presence in the region, including both active-duty personnel and veterans. And if any part of the United States ought to understand the economic benefits of free trade agreements with Latin America, it’s the border boomtown of Laredo.

There’s no doubt that tonight’s victor will win in November; after the nail-biter in 2004, Cuellar went on to trounce his Republican opponent by 20 points. This year, the GOP isn’t even bothering to field a candidate. (Glenda B. Moyes will run as a Libertarian.)

The Club for Growth considers the reelection of Cuellar so important that he became the first Democrat the group has ever endorsed. “He’s a Democrat who supports some pro-growth policies and he’s running against a Democrat who supports no pro-growth policies,” says executive director David Keating. Members of the group have donated $160,000 directly to Cuellar’s campaign, says Keating, and the organization separately has sponsored a phone bank.

Many conservatives will cheer for Cuellar tonight not just because his positions are closer to their own or because a Rodriguez victory would move Congress ever so slightly to the left. Rather, today’s primary may serve as a kind of bellwether for more critical elections later this year. If Cuellar wins, it could demonstrate that voters aren’t nearly as restive as polls might indicate; if he loses, it could show that anti-Bush attitudes are shaping the electorate in decisive ways.

One thing is for sure: the White House will be keep tabs on what happens.

— John J. Miller is national political reporter for National Review and the author, most recently, of A Gift of Freedom: How the John M. Olin Foundation Changed America..