September 01, 2004, 12:36 a.m.
Signature Disappointment
No Child Left Behind is nothing to stake a presidency on.

New York, N.Y. — The No Child Left Behind bill enjoyed the designation of H.R. 1 as President Bush’s top domestic priority in 2001, and enthusiastic bipartisan support when it easily passed Congress. There remains at least some agreement about the merits of the ambitious plan. The secretary of education’s Tuesday-night cheerleading aside, both John Kerry and plenty of Republicans wish they had never voted for it. John Kerry wants to pin all the blame on the GOP for the widespread grousing about the plan, and Republicans fear he will be successful.

There were some early conservative complaints about the bill’s increased spending and new federal mandates on schools, but President Bush’s personal commitment to the reform kept the number of naysayers small. Still, when the legislation was approved by the House, more Democrats favored it than Republicans. With state and local education officials now loudly objecting to the reform’s demands, there are fewer and fewer Washington politicians willing to be held accountable for their education-accountability handiwork.

The plan imposes a regime of testing on the states, with strict targets for student proficiency. A system of carrots and sticks — extra funds and sanctions — is designed to make recalcitrant states get with the program. The fundamental problem with this ambitious attempt to impose wholesale reform out of Washington is that state officials without a real commitment to force real reform will wiggle out of the law’s demands, and those leaders determined to shake up the status quo — like the Governors Bush in Texas and Florida — don’t need pressure from Washington.

Last week, Republican delegates objected to a draft platform that bragged about education spending increases worthy of LBJ. A reference to the Great Society’s architect was dropped in favor of boasting about the Bush administration’s being responsible for the biggest boost in federal education spending in 40 years. Although the 50 percent increase in federal spending over the past three years is far more than Democrats ever dreamed of committing to Jimmy Carter’s Education Department, they complain that the expensive reform is under-funded. As is typically the case with federal legislation — and as with the education bill in 1994 under a Democratic Congress — the money ultimately spent falls short of the authorized level of funding. Democrats ignore the huge increase and point to this artificial shortfall to accuse President Bush of trying to reform education on the cheap. While the administration’s defense of its federal largesse clearly dispirits its conservative supporters, there is little evidence that there has been a political payoff for the party on the education issue.

In the most recent Washington Post/NBC poll, when asked what would be the single most important issue affecting their vote for president this year, six percent identified education — well behind the economy, terrorism, the war in Iraq, and health care (which was second to last). This week’s poll has Bush and Kerry tied on handling education, an issue Democrats traditionally enjoy a significant advantage on. But a month ago the same poll had Bush trailing Kerry on education by 13 points. No candidate face-off or major development explains the fluctuation: As voters have soured some on Kerry in general, they credit Bush with being able to handle issues better.

In the months following the signing of No Child Left Behind, Republicans slipped in the polls on the issue of education. There is a payoff in public opinion when politicians express concern about the state of schools, but it appears unrelated to enacting reforms. When it comes to education, reform talk is cheap — and George Bush’s signature domestic achievement certainly hasn’t been.