As usual, feel free to adjust your sodium intake when evaluating a poll released by a campaign, but I find this pretty plausible:
A poll commissioned by his campaign shows Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta (R) leading 13-term Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) 56 percent to 37 percent. The Tarrance Group surveyed 400 likely voters on July 12 and 13. Its poll has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.
At the link, the Kanjorski folks note that other polls showed Barletta leading in 2008. Yes, but he never led by a margin like this.
Why do I find this result plausible? Barletta is a good, charismatic candidate who gave a good push in 2008 while Obama was carrying the state, and Kanjorski seems particularly weak for a Democratic incumbent, winning only 49 percent in his own party’s primary.
Barletta’s putting up his first general-election campaign ad: